Put the odds in your favor

Posted on: February 3, 2010
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I’ve been getting a few e-mails lately, so I figure this would be a good time to answer a few questions.

Here’s a recent e-mail question I received from Igor V.

Q: I’m a new player to poker. I wanted to ask how much do you bet when you are on a flush draw or straight draw?

The problem with poker is that there’s no right answer, most of it depends of your opponent, whether you think he’ll call, re-raise or fold to your bet.

It’s hard to hit flops — the odds of flopping a flush draw is about 13 percent and the odds of flopping an open-ended straight draw is about 10 percent. Together, with a hand like 6♠ 5♠, you’ve got a 19-percent chance of flopping one or the other.

Generally, when your hand improves, you should bet.

Let’s use an example:

You’re at the beginning of a standard online tournament and every player has their starting stack of 1,500. It folds to you on the button, where you have A 10. You raise to 150, (the starting blinds are 25-50 for this example) and you are called by the small blind. The big blind folds.

Flop: 7 5♠ 2

The small blind checks.

Now, that’s a good flop for you. You’ve represented strength with your pre-flop raise, so it’s good to continue to show your opponent that strength. In the beginning stages of a tournament, where you don’t have a read on your opponent yet, a standard continuation bet of anywhere from half the pot (175) to the entire pot should be enough to take it down.

Since you’re a new player, you’re probably playing low stakes, so your opponent won’t do anything crazy in this spot. But if he/she does…

(Stopping here would be the short answer to your question.)

It’s important to think about is what you’re willing to call or fold or re-raise with for that same draw — and it’s the math that’s fundamental to succeeding at this game.

Let’s say you bet 175 and the small blind makes a minimum re-raise to 350. Now, your opponent is representing strength, but he or she is giving you odds to make your flush. You’ve got roughly a 4-to-1 shot to hit your flush on the next card and it will cost you 175 to win the 875 chips in the pot, which is almost 6-to-1 for your money. Casinos make millions each year based on small advantages like these and you should take them when you get them.

(Side analysis: Since you’re in a low-stakes online tournament in this example, it’s likely your opponent, who check-raised you, will not fold to an all-in re-raise. He’s representing a set, a pocket pair higher than the board or a hand like A-7. The only hand that would fold would be a bluff or a lesser diamond draw — and you don’t want to scare those hands away.)

While that’s a relatively simple understanding of odds, you must also consider the amount of chips you could win from your opponent after the river if you make your flush — this is called implied odds.

Let’s say the turn card is the J.

You’ve still got a 4-to-1 shot to hit your flush, but your opponent bets 500 into the 1,050-chip pot. Now, you’d only be getting about 3-to-1 on your money to chase a flush, but your opponent would most likely shove his remaining chips on the river or call your all-in regardless of the card (and once you’ve got 1,000 chips of your 1,500 stack, you’re almost pot-committed to a call) — that means you’re really getting 4-to-1 when you count his remaining chips.

I know it can be confusing — there are about a thousand different ways a poker hand can be played and I didn’t make it easy with my side notes — but I hope you have a better grasp on odds and when to bet/call/raise/fold.

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